The "Limits-to-growth" studies weren't wrong. They didn't "predict" the future but laid out different scenarios base on different assumptions (about resource growth, population growth, food growth, industrial growth, pollution growth). Their original "business as usual" scenario forecast a global collapse by now because, not surprisingly, some its assumptions were a little off. With updated assumptions based on the last 50 years of data, this scenario appears to becoming true. That is, we are actually hitting the world limits-to-growth right now. In fact, an increasing # people, like Jem Bendell, have studied the data and concluded we are already in the early stages of civilization collapse (accelerating climate and ecosystem damage, slowing economic growth, increasing economic fragility, increasing social and political conflict, etc.). Many have concluded that it is very unlikely that new technology will come to the rescuue - that it will be too little, too late - that it require something like nuclear fusion to become very economical on a massive, global scale, within a generation.
The "Limits-to-growth" studies weren't wrong. They didn't "predict" the future but laid out different scenarios base on different assumptions (about resource growth, population growth, food growth, industrial growth, pollution growth). Their original "business as usual" scenario forecast a global collapse by now because, not surprisingly, some its assumptions were a little off. With updated assumptions based on the last 50 years of data, this scenario appears to becoming true. That is, we are actually hitting the world limits-to-growth right now. In fact, an increasing # people, like Jem Bendell, have studied the data and concluded we are already in the early stages of civilization collapse (accelerating climate and ecosystem damage, slowing economic growth, increasing economic fragility, increasing social and political conflict, etc.). Many have concluded that it is very unlikely that new technology will come to the rescuue - that it will be too little, too late - that it require something like nuclear fusion to become very economical on a massive, global scale, within a generation.
I've been binge listening to your podcasts for the last 2 months. Eye opening and disturbing stuff.
Thank you!